Paris Saint-Germain stands one step away from history. Win the Champions League this season, and PSG become the first team since Real Madrid’s golden run of 2015 to 2018 to lift Europe’s biggest club trophy three years running. That single fact explains why the Champions League favourites 2026-27 conversation feels so loaded with intrigue right now.
The league phase kicked off this week. Five Premier League sides want to end PSG’s dominance. Arsenal reached their first Champions League final since 2005-06 last year, and many experts believe they finally have the tools to go one step further. However, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and even Manchester City all have legitimate claims to the throne too.
This article breaks down the real Champions League favourites 2026-27, the players who could define the tournament, and how the four newcomers to Europe’s top competition might fare. It draws on insight from football experts Julien Laurens and Guillem Balague, plus the latest statistical modelling from Opta.
Why the Champions League Favourites 2026-27 Race Matters So Much
Every Champions League campaign carries weight. This one feels different, though. PSG’s bid for a historic three-peat adds a layer of tension that European football has missed since Real Madrid’s era of total dominance. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s improved squad and newfound consistency have given English fans genuine reason to believe.
For fans, this matters beyond bragging rights. The Champions League shapes transfer market value, influences Ballon d’Or voting, and often defines a manager’s legacy. Additionally, the final takes place in Madrid on 5 June next year, so a full season of drama and standout performances still lies ahead.
BBC Sport will carry highlights of every match this season. You can catch them on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app from 22:00 BST every Wednesday during Champions League weeks. A dedicated Champions League Match of the Day also airs on BBC One at 22:40. This week only, BBC Two adds a Thursday highlights show at 22:30, following Thursday’s fixtures.
Who Are the Champions League Favourites for 2026-27?
Opinions differ sharply among the experts. However, a clear pattern emerges: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and PSG dominate the conversation, with Barcelona and Real Madrid also in the mix as top contenders.
Julien Laurens Backs Arsenal as the Leading Champions League Favourite
Julien Laurens thinks PSG completing the three-peat would be remarkable. He does not see it happening, though. He believes Luis Enrique’s side can realistically reach the semi-finals. Winning three straight titles without a generational talent like Cristiano Ronaldo, he argues, is simply too tough a task.
Laurens instead names Bayern Munich and Arsenal as the two teams most deserving of a final spot, given their consistency over the past two seasons. When picking an outright winner, he goes with Arsenal. His reasoning centres on their defence, which he calls the best in Europe by a clear margin. Defensive solidity, he argues, ultimately wins titles at this level.
Laurens also doubts Real Madrid’s project under Jose Mourinho. That scepticism keeps Real Madrid out of his predicted final four, despite their pedigree.
Guillem Balague Rates Barcelona Among the Top Contenders
Guillem Balague takes a slightly different view. He notes that PSG’s irregular start to the season shows how hard it is to sustain elite form year after year. Luis Enrique keeps pushing his squad toward high-pressing, dynamic football. Balague still expects a transitional period, though, with some unpredictable results before things click into place from January onward.
Despite that, Balague still expects PSG to finish close to the top again.
Barcelona, however, caught his eye more than anyone. Under Hansi Flick, Barcelona play with real momentum, even though the squad could use another centre-back and a genuine number nine. Balague believes Flick already senses the team is progressing toward the top regardless.
He also praises Arsenal for finally learning how to win consistently. That shift, he says, has released pressure from the players and should translate into sharper performances. Balague expects Arsenal, Barcelona, and PSG to occupy three of the four semi-final spots, draw permitting. The fourth spot, he suggests, will likely go to Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, or Manchester City.
What the Stats Say About the Champions League Favourites 2026-27
Pundit opinion offers valuable context, but the numbers tell their own story. According to Opta, Arsenal currently hold the highest overall probability of winning the Champions League this season at 20.4%. Bayern Munich sit close behind at 20%, despite losing to PSG in last season’s semi-finals.
PSG, meanwhile, sit at 7.3% for a third consecutive European title. That places them fourth overall in Opta’s rankings. Manchester City ranks third, with a 12.7% chance of winning it all.
Interestingly, all five Premier League clubs feature inside Opta’s top 10 for overall win probability. Furthermore, Opta gives every English side at least a 50% chance of reaching the knockout rounds, which underlines the strength of Premier League representation this season.
How the Draw Shapes the Champions League Favourites 2026-27
The league phase draw plays a significant role in shaping expectations. Liverpool received the easiest fixture list according to Opta’s power rankings, while Stuttgart held the easiest run of any club overall. Inter Milan landed the most favourable draw among the pot one seeded teams.
Arsenal also benefited from a relatively kind draw. They drew heavyweights Real Madrid and Bayern Munich from pot one. However, Arsenal also drew the two lowest-ranked teams in the entire competition, Sabah and Slovan Bratislava. That balance helps explain their strong statistical standing.
Manchester City, on the other hand, face one of the toughest roads to the knockout stage. Only five clubs in the entire competition received a harder draw. City must contend with two European giants from pot one, Barcelona and PSG, as well as Napoli, ranked 24th overall, from pot three.
For context, Arsenal topped the league phase last season after receiving one of the easier fixture lists. Bayern Munich finished second overall despite facing the toughest set of opponents among all 36 clubs. That result shows just how much quality Bayern possess, regardless of the draw.
Champions League Favourites 2026-27: Players to Watch
Beyond the title race, individual brilliance often defines a Champions League campaign. Both experts named players they believe will shape this season’s tournament.
Julien Laurens’ Picks
Jude Bellingham tops Laurens’ list. He believes this season matters hugely for Bellingham, both personally and for Real Madrid, as he settles into the number 10 role under Mourinho. Laurens expects the momentum from a strong World Cup to carry into a decisive, goal-heavy campaign.
Nico Paz of Como also earns a mention. As Cesc Fabregas’s side make their Champions League debut, Paz sits at the centre of everything they do with the ball. Laurens calls him a special talent still developing, one who will reach the top very soon.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, whom Laurens calls “Mr Champions League,” has produced outstanding form for PSG over the past two seasons. His technical ability on both feet, combined with his knack for standout moments, puts him firmly in Ballon d’Or contention this year.
Laurens also highlights Ismaelo Ganiou of Lens, a 21-year-old centre-back who pushed PSG hard in last season’s Ligue 1 title race. Laurens expects a big Premier League club to sign Ganiou at the end of the season, given his physicality and composure on the ball.
Finally, Donyell Malen earns a mention after an impressive spell at Roma following his move from Aston Villa. He scores at nearly a goal-per-game rate as Gian Piero Gasperini’s lone striker, and Laurens expects Malen to return to his best form now that Roma compete in Europe again.
Guillem Balague’s Picks
Balague turns to Harry Kane, who continues chasing his first Ballon d’Or. He expects Kane to maintain his elite level this season, particularly given how well Bayern Munich’s playing style suits his strengths.
Lamine Yamal also features prominently. Still just a teenager, Yamal has set his sights on Champions League glory. Balague believes Hansi Flick’s aggressive, high-pressing system will let him shine even brighter.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia appears again on Balague’s list too, with both experts agreeing he has reached another level entirely. Balague expects him to rescue PSG in must-win moments this season.
Kaua Elias of Shakhtar Donetsk is another name to watch. At just 20 years old, he fits neatly into Shakhtar’s long tradition of developing Brazilian talent before big-money transfers to Europe’s top leagues.
Lastly, Balague points to Martin Odegaard’s resurgence after an injury-hit previous campaign. Arsenal now play with more confidence, and Balague believes Odegaard stands ready to lead and dominate games once again.
How Will the Champions League Debutants Perform in 2026-27?
Four teams experienced the Champions League for the first time this season. Balague shared his thoughts on each.
Como, managed by Cesc Fabregas, earns high praise. Balague admires how Fabregas stuck with the project despite interesting offers elsewhere, which gave him the freedom to keep developing his footballing ideas. As a result, Balague expects Como to reach the knockout stages in their debut campaign.
Austrian side LASK showed real quality by getting past Celtic in qualifying. However, Balague believes a respectable points total, and perhaps one home win, marks a fair outcome for their first season, rather than an actual qualification push.
Azerbaijan’s Sabah presents an interesting case. Strong organizations built their success. However, a schedule that includes trips to Arsenal and Manchester United, plus home fixtures against Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund, makes for an extremely tough introduction to Europe’s elite level. Balague expects a few surprising results, but not enough to progress.
Norwegian club Viking round out the debutants. They face Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Napoli, and Aston Villa. Balague notes that Norwegian football keeps producing clever, competitive coaches and players, which gives Viking a genuine chance of reaching the knockout rounds.
Final Thoughts: A Wide-Open Race to Madrid
This season’s Champions League favourites 2026-27 list looks more competitive than it has in years. PSG remain the team to beat given their back-to-back titles. Yet the statistics and expert opinion both suggest Arsenal and Bayern Munich hold real claims to the crown. Meanwhile, Barcelona’s rise under Hansi Flick and Manchester City’s tough draw add further unpredictability to the mix.
Ultimately, five Premier League clubs sitting inside Opta’s top 10 shows just how competitive English football has become on the European stage. As the league phase unfolds, expect twists, standout individual performances, and plenty of drama before the road ends in Madrid next June.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Who are the current favourites to win the Champions League in 2026-27?
According to Opta’s statistical model, Arsenal lead the Champions League favourites 2026-27 list with a 20.4% chance of winning, closely followed by Bayern Munich at 20%. PSG, despite winning the past two titles, sit fourth with a 7.3% chance.
2. Can PSG win a third consecutive Champions League title?
PSG have a genuine chance, but most experts see it as difficult. No club has won three Champions League titles in a row since Real Madrid achieved the feat between 2015 and 2018.
3. When and where is the Champions League final in 2026-27?
This season’s Champions League final takes place in Madrid on 5 June next year.
4. Which Premier League teams are competing in the Champions League this season?
Five English clubs compete this season, including Arsenal and Manchester City. All five rank inside Opta’s top 10 for overall win probability, and Opta gives each one more than a 50% chance of reaching the last-16.
5. Which team has the toughest Champions League draw this season?
Manchester City face one of the hardest routes in the league phase, with only five clubs across the competition handed a tougher set of fixtures. City must play two European giants from pot one, Barcelona and PSG, plus Napoli, ranked 24th overall, from pot three.
